SOME TYPICAL STRATEGIC FORESIGHT METHODS

Phuoc D. Nguyen

One of the obstacles leaders must overcome to successfully apply strategic foresight methods throughout their organizations that are information collection in environmental scanning. “Cornish Scanning: An ongoing effort to identify significant changes in the world beyond the organization or group doing the scanning…. Scanning focuses mainly on trends—changes that occur through time—rather than events, changes that occur very quickly.” (Cornish, 2004, Location No. 1367). Huge challenges to identify significant changes in the world which have related to trends identification and analysis. Therefore, environment scanning, changes, and trends which have interactions with each other. Hines (2006) suggested a tool of system map in the environmental-scanning process “Mapping the system is like creating an organizational chart, but one that also places the organization in the context of its external environment. It outlines the forces, factors, and stakeholders and their relationships in light of the issue being studied.” (p. 20). Determining these interactions is a major obstacle in strategic foresight to its outcome trends. For example, leaders and management teams coordinate with the HR department to determine trends and changes from 2018 to 2038, during this period they determine the strategic vision, organizational goals, organizational, mission, and CSFs including new positions and extruded unnecessary positions in every five years aim to design combined organizational charts based on types of organizational charts such as hierarchical, matrix, horizontal/flat, flatter, flat archesholacratic, geographical area, functional, products/services, etc. throughout twenty years next. This is also a significant obstacle that depends on strategic foresight and HR planning background and competency of forces, factors, and stakeholders and the analysis of their relationship. This analysis is based on environmental-scanning outcomes. Therefore, The design of business processes, organizational charts, CSFs, missions, and goals is based on strategic vision and trends in every period of strategic foresight implementation.

Choo, Slaughter, and Voros, (2003) proposed modes of environmental scanning “In order to be effective, environmental scanning needs to engage all four modes of viewing and searching. Undirected viewing helps the organization to scan broadly and develop peripheral vision so that it can see and think ‘outside the box’. Conditioned viewing tracks trends and gives the organization early warning about emerging issues. Informal search draws a profile of an issue or development, allowing the organization to identify its main features and assess its potential impact. Formal search systematically gathers all relevant information about an issue to enable intelligent decision making.” (pp. 12-13). Four modes of viewing and searching can be implemented a sequence, matrix, or combination. To implement as a sequence; first, informal search is to search competitors and company assessment and review information to find out the cause and learn from an issue; second, conditioned viewing is to analyze emerging issues and trends aim to fix issues, prevent and manage risks, and identify relatively accurate trends; third, undirected viewing is to gather general information around the world, regions, country, and local aim to generate strategic vision and critical and strategic thinking; final, formal search is to systematize environmental-scanning process through aim to gather necessary information which has related directly to issues.