HINES AND BISHOP’S THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE

Phuoc D. Nguyen

Hines (2007) reviews his and Bishop’s book named ‘Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight’ which they wrote in 2006. He indicates key benefits of the 115 guidelines from 316 benefit statements which were indicated from contributors. The statistics of the percentage of the benefits of strategic foresight based on Hines and Bishop’s (2006) strategic foresight process show that Framing (22%), Scanning (16%), Forecasting (22%), Visioning (10%), Planning (7%), and Acting (23%). In the 2^nd edition of this book which was published in 2015, Hines and Bishop indicate “all the examples of the 115 guidelines were reviewed and 53 were updated. This also led to several new references being added.” (Hines and Bishop, 2015, Loc. 62). According to Hines (2007), the key benefits of strategic foresight including thinking more diverse, open, balanced, and non-biased (9%) in the Framing phase; anticipating change and avoiding surprise (10%) in the Scanning phase; producing more creative, broader, and deeper insights (16%) in the Forecasting phase; prioritizing and making better and more robust decisions (10%) in the Visioning phase; constructing pathways from the present to the future that enable rehearsing the future (7%) in the Planning phase; and building alignment, commitment, and confidence (14%) in the Acting phase. The use of whole brain processes in the Framing phase has the benefits of “ideally, team members should have a diverse mix of thinking-style preferences so the group as a whole can achieve whole brain thinking.” (Hines and Bishop, 2015, Loc. 571-576). A diverse mix of thinking-style preferences of investigators, creators, evaluators, and activators because brain processes are very important in strategic foresight, right thinking is always doing the thing right.

I think that the Framing phase is the most fundamental because the steps of the Framing phase include Adjusting attitudes, Knowing the audience, Understanding the rationale and purpose, setting objectives, Selecting the team, and Creating a strategic work environment. Therein, the steps of Adjusting attitudes, Knowing the audience, Understanding the rationale and purpose, and Creating a strategic work environment are ‘soft factors’ to support actively the step of setting objectives which is the ‘hard factor’ and the next phase in the strategic foresight. Therefore, the Framing phase is a logistics phase for all the next phases. If the outcomes of the good Framing phase lead to outcomes of the next phases that will be fine. Guidelines for Strategic Foresight Hines and Bishop’s (2015) are based on a process approach that includes phases of Framing, Scanning, Forecasting, Visioning, Planning, and Acting. Hines and Bishop show many guidelines in every phase in an order. Specialists are responsible for phases of Scanning, Forecasting, and Acting; managers are responsible for the phase of Planning; leaders are responsible for phases of Framing and Visioning; and a strategic foresight project leader is responsible for all phases. Therefore, the most important benefits depend on the position and role of the participant in the strategic foresight process. For a strategic foresight project leader, all phases and areas are equally important.