ANTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE

Phuoc D. Nguyen

Klein, Snowden, and Pin (2007) stated, “Anticipatory thinking depends on our capability to prepare, and not just our ability to predict future states of the world. Indeed, over-preparation around a ‘predicted’ set of scenarios may reduce our capacity to exercise our ability for anticipation” (p. 2). We can integrate anticipatory thinking into the stage of issue identification in Ashley and Morrison’s (1995) anticipatory management process, including a strategic trend intelligence system and scenario technique to prepare and support future trend suggestions. Additionally, we also integrate it into the issue brief writing stage to prepare and support driving forces identification and predict prospects.

Quay (2010) proposed, “Anticipatory governance relies on the development and analysis of a range of possible scenarios, rather than a forecast or selection of a single scenario…Using the analysis of the defined range of anticipated futures, actions to adapt to one or more of these possible futures are then developed” (p. 499). Anticipatory governance and anticipatory thinking are integrated into strategic trend intelligence systems and scenario techniques to develop and analyze a range of possible scenarios.

Fuerth (2009) defined, “The basic elements of anticipatory governance are: a system for generating foresight in the form of alternative constructs about the future; a system for incorporating foresight into policy-making and policy–execution; and a system to provide feedback connections between results and estimates” (p. 29). Anticipatory governance is an integrated anticipatory system. It is suggested that integrating a system for generating foresight into the component of prospects in the issue brief to generate alternative futures; integrate a system for incorporating foresight into policy-making and policy–execution into the stage of corporate policy formulation of the anticipatory management process to formulate, make, and implement corporate policy; integrate a system to provide feedback into stages of performance evaluation and issues monitor to connect performance standards and performance results.

Leaders who are adept at positioning their organizations for future success consistently demonstrate three skills. As futurists, they inform themselves about a wide range of current events and trends. As strategists, they hone their understanding of the opportunities and threats that these shifts present. As integrators of ideas, beliefs, and emotions they continually engage with the people of their organizations, identifying opportunities and aligning resources toward common objectives (Savage and Sales, 2008, p. 28). An anticipatory leader who integrates anticipatory leadership into an integrated anticipatory system includes anticipatory leadership, anticipatory management, and anticipatory governance through anticipatory leadership skills as futurists, strategists, and integrators; their role covers the integrated anticipatory system as described above.