SCENARIO PLANNING AND THE DOMAINS OF DIALOGUE, CONVERSATION QUALITY, AND ENGAGEMENT

Phuoc D. Nguyen

Based on learning theory, decision-making theory, mental models, and leadership theory Chermack (2011) suggested a theory of scenario planning that is interactive with “domains of Dialogue, conversation quality, and engagement; Learning; Decision-making; Mental models; and Leadership support aim to get outcomes of scenario planning that is Organization performance and change.” (Chermack, 2011, Loc. 771). However, Chermack (2011) has not described the interaction between domains of Dialogue, conversation quality, and engagement; Learning; Decision-making; Mental models; and Leadership support in the scenario planning process and he has also not interconnected between learning theory, decision-making theory, mental models, and leadership theory together in his theoretical foundation of scenario planning too. His theory of scenario planning is based on process and system approaches, performance management, and change management. The domain of Organization performance and change is described in the performance-based scenario including a cycle of phases of “inputs, project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation, project assessment, outputs.” (Chermack, 2011, Loc. 1367). According to Chermack, Coons, O’barr, and Khatami (2017), “The domain ‘Dialogue, conversation quality, and engagement’ is focused on the communication experiences of individuals. Specifically, this domain refers to the quality of strategic conversations. Learning. The second domain – Learning – connects to individuals’ experiences with their sense of their ability to learn. The domain of decision-making style considers participant decision-making tendencies and the preferred style for making decisions…Scenario planning encourages participants to realize how their mental models shape their decision-making and create their assumptions about the world. Leadership as a primary component of scenario planning is based on the fact that like any organization development intervention, leadership support is essential.” (pp. 310-311). The domains of ‘Dialogue, conversation quality, and engagement’ show the communication experiences of individuals support the strategic management system to establish the communication sub-system including external strategic communication and internal strategic communication throughout the scenario planning process. The domain of ‘Learning’ needs support actively from the communication sub-system to teach, learn, and communicate knowledge, experience, and learning outcomes. The domain of ‘Decision-making’ shows decision-making tendencies and the preferred style for making decisions is directly related to the result of scenario exploration including steps of external analysis, STEEP forces analysis, De Bono’s thinking hats, SWOT analysis, interviews, business idea analysis, other synthesis tools application. The domain of ‘Mental models’ can be implemented concurrently with the domain of ‘Decision-making’ because it helps shape decision-making and create assumptions after it applies other synthesis tools. The domains of ‘Dialogue, conversation quality, and engagement’ and domain of ‘Leadership support’ are implemented throughout from domain of Dialogue, conversation quality, and engagement; Learning; Decision-making to Mental models. It is suggested that the order of domains of Chermack’s (2011) scenario planning theory should be in a sequence of Scenario planning, Learning, Decision-making and Mental models, Organization performance, and change. Extensively, domains of Dialogue, conversation quality, engagement, and Leadership support are linked closely to each other to impact all other domains in the scenario planning process.