SCENARIO TECHNIQUE AND ROAD-MAPPING

Phuoc D. Nguyen

The correlation between scenario building and road mapping is described as a strategic foresight process that uses two foresight tools of scenario technique and road mapping together. A roadmap may be constructed beginning with the key needs of the marketplace and customers – a market-pull perspective. Conversely, a roadmap may start with key technology and seek to define the market needs that could be served with the new technology – a technology-push perspective (Albright, n.d.). Scenario-based technological road-mapping aims to plan scenarios of new technologies in the future, technology road-mapping is an action plan to reach technological development objectives and implement new technologies. Whereas the scenario technique can anticipate the key technological needs of the marketplace and customers.

From scenarios to road-mapping can be followed up by scenarios and road-mapping in an ongoing process, where learning is the progress, thus the common vision is the missing link between the two tools, and the context is set with the scenario-making exercise (Ricard and Borch, 2011, p. 3). There is confusion between the scenario technique and road-mapping, the scenario technique creates technological scenarios, while road-mapping deals with the current key needs of the marketplace and customers. Additionally, technological road-mapping supports to achievement of short-term new technological objectives, whereas the scenario technique supports long-term new technologies vision.

Ashley and Morrison (1995) suggested “One approach to creating multiple scenarios – frame an issue, specify decision factors, identify environmental forces, select a logic, decide implications and recommend actions, and elaborate scenarios” (p. 172). Lizaso and Reger (2004) proposed, “Linking road-mapping and scenarios process consists of six steps – road-mapping preparation, system analysis, scenario projection, scenario building, time assessment, and road-mapping” (p. 70). It is suggested that to integrate Ashley and Morrison’s (1995) scenario technique approach and Lizaso and Reger’s (2004) road-mapping and scenarios process, including key steps of road-mapping preparation; system analysis; scenario projection – frame an issue, specify decision factors, identify environmental forces, select a logic, decide implications and recommend actions; elaborate scenarios – scenario building; time assessment, and road-mapping.

Road mapping is about assuming a given future(s) and providing paths to get it, using a certain amount of foresight and a certain amount of consensus… Technology scenarios describe the development of technology systems, through factors that involve technologies of strategic value because of their adequacy and potential to perform the tasks/functions or achieve the features the technology system has to, or can, accomplish over time (Lizaso and Reger, 2004, p. 69). Technology scenarios anticipate kinds of new technology and road-mapping sets objectives of new technologies and it provides routes and directions to implement an action plan to reach new technologies objectives.