THE FUTURES WHEEL

Phuoc D. Nguyen

Before we make an important decision, consider putting the futures wheel in our decision to see if we are on the right track. “The Futures Wheel is a form of structured brainstorming that helps participants visualize how important trends or events might impact on the policy or strategy area in question. It is particularly useful for identifying and mapping connections and causalities.” (GOS, 2017, p. 110). Do we think about the future that will be affected when we consider a change? Perhaps the change is being reluctant by market factors or other conditions, but we initiate changes as a great way to improve our organization. Regardless of the circumstances, we need to change between wheels so that this tool works well with us. Bengston (2015) outlines the method of the Futures Wheel exercise including defining the center, selecting participants, identifying first-order consequences, identifying second-order consequences, identifying third-order consequences, scoring the consequences, and analyzing and interpreting results.

Benckendorff (2007) indicates “Practical challenges of using the futures wheel including the first was the need to discuss 11 – 12 trends in a 100 m time-frame. The second was the increased complexity of conceptualizing a futures wheel with 11 or more trends. The third challenge was the selection of trends using the importance/certainty construct. (p. 30). For example, we use an example of a wage increase as the proposed change. At the center of the Future Wheel: 10% increase in wages. From the Futures Wheel to identify changes that need to occur, decide whether or not the change should happen, changes’ benefits, the first-order consequences, dig deeply down the level of deeper consequences.

With the change in the center, we can now start listing the changes that we expect to happen due to this change. At first, may be a little overwhelming. To succeed, we need to take a deep breath and slowly go through all the important results that we can foresee. We have just thought about the greatest things we would expect to happen if we move forward with the proposed change. These are called the first changes in the context of the Futures Wheel. So, if we decide to make a pay raise for the group, what initial changes are expected? Yes, employees are happier. With a more satisfied team, we can expect increased productivity in the whole company. Once we have identified the first-order consequences around the main change, we can go deeper. From every first hit, try to find the consequences of the second-order and third-order. We can advance to multiple levels depending on the complexity of the situation. The first-order consequences include staff being happier and revenue increase. The second-order consequences include more difficulty in internal conversion. The third-order consequences include dissatisfaction with a department itself when it has felt it is more valuable than other departments.