TRADITIONAL STRATEGIC PLANNING AND STRATEGIC FORESIGHT PROCESS

Phuoc D. Nguyen

Having many graduate programs in strategy from top-ranking business schools in the U.S. and around the world, their curricula have not taught or mentioned strategic foresight and future studies courses. Whether or not they have recognized the importance of the tight link between strategic foresight and future studies with strategy. David (2011) stated “The strategic management process consists of three stages: strategy formulation, strategy implementation, and strategy evaluation. Strategy formulation includes developing a vision and mission, identifying an organization’s external opportunities and threats, determining internal strengths and weaknesses, establishing long-term objectives, generating alternative strategies, and choosing particular strategies to pursue. Strategy formulation issues include deciding what new businesses to enter, what businesses to abandon, how to allocate resources, whether to expand operations or diversify, whether to enter international markets, whether to merge or form a joint venture, and how to avoid a hostile takeover.” (p. 6). Traditional strategic planning uses tools of strategic planning such as SWOT analysis, Porter’s Five Forces Model, mind maps, etc. It uses the results of strategic planning to know external forces, external opportunities, and general threats, the threat of new competitors to the market with new products and services, and brainstorming to show new concepts, ideas, and images. Additionally, traditional strategic planning uses forecast methods and quantitative analysis that combine with strategic planning tools to plan strategy in the short-term round of 3 to 5 years through establishing a strategic vision, mission, and goals. However, the traditional strategic implementation uses the balanced scorecard tool to measure strategic implementation and evaluation outcomes which are very effective.

Andersen and Rasmussen (2014) suggested phases of elements in a foresight process including the planning phase: preparing and organizing; the main phase: mapping, foresighting, prioritizing, and planning; follow-up phase: disseminating and learning (p. 10). Andersen and Rasmussen’s (2014) phases of elements in a foresight process have a perfect order. The main phase included mapping: boundary, system description and mapping, and strategic environment; foresighting: future trends, internal challenges, driving factors, and visions; prioritizing: gross list of alternatives, criteria, and priority-setting; planning: recommendations, policy toolbox, action plan, and robustness check.

Hines (2006) proposed a foresight process as follows: Framing: attitude, audience, work environment, rationale and purpose, objectives, and teams; Scanning: the system, history and context of the issue, and how to scan for information regarding the future of the issue; Forecasting: drivers and uncertainties; tools, diverging and converging approaches, and alternatives; Visioning: implications of the forecast, and envisioning designed outcomes; Planning: strategy and options for carrying out the vision; Acting: communicating the results, developing action agendas, and institutionalizing strategic thinking and intelligence systems. (p. 18). It is recommended that integrate Hines’ (2006) foresight process and Andersen and Rasmussen’s  (2014) foresight process into David’s (2011) strategic management process as follows: Step 1: Organizing and Framing: establish purpose, objectives, and task force; select foresight methodologies, methods, techniques, and tools that best fit company resources; Step 2: Mapping, Scanning, and Forecasting: system mapping and scanning, environment scanning, and trends analysis to show the future of issues or opportunities, drivers and uncertainties, tools, diverging and converging approaches, and future and strategic alternatives; Step 4: Visioning and Foresighting: implications and uses of the forecast, envisioning designed outcomes, future trends, external and internal challenges, driving factors, and visions; Step 5: Planning: developing a vision and adjust mission, establishing long-term goals, develop alternative strategies and future, and choosing and adjusting particular strategies fit future trends, robustness check, propose strategic plans; Step 6: Acting: implement foresight and strategic goals to reach vision and mission, institutionalizing strategic thinking and intelligence systems, use the balanced scorecards to measure foresight goals and objectives; Step 7: foresight and strategy implementation evaluation.